Chart of the Month
(Expanded Insights added 7/16/2025)
Just as we celebrate America’s 249th birthday, the markets too have exhibited their own display of fireworks, especially in the 2nd quarter of the year! Between tariffs, politics, and warfare, a lot took place. But, as any ardent follower of 6 Meridian knows, timing entry and exit points amidst what can occasionally be viewed as short-term chaos tends to be counterproductive to ultimately achieving one’s desired wealth objectives. Our team will continue to be advocates of a well-diversified, global portfolio.
Our chart this month helps illustrate why our advocacy for globally diversified portfolios remains steadfast. If you think back to 2022, the S&P 500 encountered a bear market (defined by the industry as a 20%+ decline from the last all-time high), ultimately hitting its low point on 10/12/2022. The table shows how different parts of the equity market have fared since then, and some of the results may be found surprising.
As US-based investors, we often follow the S&P 500 as our guide to market performance. It is no secret that performance has done well since that bear-market low, to the tune of 24.1% annualized. It has also become commonplace within media to refer to the Magnificent 71 (“Mag 7”), to which the table shows, having been the propeller to those results of the S&P 500. Perhaps less well understood is how the Mag 7 has distorted the more oft-followed S&P 500 from other places within equities, this disparity most striking in the variance between the S&P 500 and its lesser-known, equal-weighted version at 8.4% annualized. This is because the traditionally followed S&P 500 weights companies by their size (and the Mag 7 pack a big punch, ~1/3 of the Index) vs. the equal-weight treating all the 500 largest US companies the same (Mag 7 = 1.4% combined).
The performance of the Mag 7 is well known, but where we think it gets interesting is how well other parts of the world have performed. Both Developed Ex-US and Emerging Market equities have outperformed the S&P 500 Eq. Wgt., S&P 400 (Mid-Caps), and S&P 600 (Small Caps) in the same time frame. Thus, absent the significant concentration of the S&P 500 in the Mag 7 stocks, non-US equities have done well on relative terms and have perhaps flown a bit under the radar.
Most of these indices shown hit their recent bottom on or around the same time as the S&P 500. The lone exception is the Mag 7, which bottomed much later on 12/28/2022, making their returns since 10/12/2022 even more remarkable. Nevertheless, we do think this data gives credence to owning globally diversified portfolios and will continue to advocate for owning an appropriate mix of assets that support obtaining one’s wealth objectives without taking undue or overly concentrated risks.
1. Opening Bell Daily News. (2025, July 2). Stock market outlook: Magnificent investors, Wall Street, tariffs, Trump, Meta, Nvidia, Apple. https://www.openingbelldailynews.com/p/stock-market-outlook-magnificent-investors-wall-street-tariffs-trump-meta-nvidia-apple
Expanded Insights
In review of our latest Viewpoint, we received an inquiry to understand the impact of the US Dollar on Non-US Equity performance during the same period. In a break from our traditional writing timeline, we thought we would entertain the question and provide a further breakdown for those interested in understanding the nuances in more detail.
Without making things too complicated, a US-based investor that owns securities in foreign countries is exposed to two key risks: (1) the performance of the foreign stock (which is in a local currency) and (2) the movement of exchange rates between that local currency and the US Dollar (our home currency).
- If the US Dollar strengthens, upon converting that foreign investment back to the US, an investor receives fewer dollars.
- The opposite is true if the US Dollar weakens, an investor receives more dollars.
Thus, as the US Dollar has been weakening since October 2022, coincidentally very closely aligned with the return timeline shown, US based investors in foreign entities have benefited.
Chart Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 6/30/2025. Returns are representative of an Index. These illustrations differ from those in the July Viewpoint due to accessibility of Index Data, specifically on a Hedged basis. EAFE (USD) = MSCI EAFE Net Return Index; EAFE (Hedged) = MSCI EAFE USD Hedged Net Return Index; Emerging Markets (USD) = MSCI EM Net Return Index; Emerging Markets (Hedged) = MSCI EM USD Hedged Net Return Index.
1The S&P 500 Index hit its bear-market low on 10/12/2022. This chart is illustrative of how the various non-US Indices have performed since then on an annualized basis.
This chart shows various Non-US Equity indices and what, effectively, would be considered the impact from the weakening dollar in the time period. If the US Dollar had strengthened in this period, we would have expected a negative impact.
We occasionally get asked why an investor may own foreign equities on an unhedged basis – meaning – you take on the “currency” risk as US based investors. And the answer really boils down to currencies being volatile and unpredictable. If an investor wanted to “hedge” a foreign investment, that would be the equivalent to making a bet on the US Dollar strengthening, which is an uncertain variable and challenge to predict.
As our ardent followers of 6 Meridian are aware, we favor an investment process over conjecture. Taking a guess one way or the other – as in timing currency fluctuations – can have a meaningful impact on the ultimate investment results.
Please Leave Home Without It
Concerns over identity theft continue to grow, especially with the news of data breaches at major companies and financial institutions. Unfortunately, you have little control over when a company is hacked, but you do have control over your own actions.
Ten Things To Leave At Home
- Social Security Card – A Social Security card may be used to open credit card accounts and take out loans. Taking it out where it might be stolen is tantamount to handing the keys to the kingdom to a thief. As for seniors, while Social Security numbers have been removed from Medicare cards, your Medicare Beneficiary Identifier number is also worth shielding.
- Multiple Credit Cards – Carry a single card for general use and emergencies. Only carry another card if you plan on using it that day. Keeping all those cards at home will save you considerable time in reporting lost cards and disputing charges should your purse or wallet get stolen.
- Gift Cards and Certificates – They’re like cash. Keep them home until you’re ready to use them.
- Spare Keys – Your wallet or purse contains your home address. No sense making the theft worse by endangering your home and family.
- USB Drive – Very convenient for carrying important files, but it’s gone forever if your wallet or purse is lost or stolen.
- Password Cheat Sheet – Carrying passwords makes it possible for them to fall into the wrong hands. Don’t carry your cheat sheet? How about those ATM PINs? That’s a sure way to lose cash fast.
- Checks – Carrying around a blank check is an obvious risk. Even a canceled check is a risk, since it has your routing and account numbers, which may be used to transfer cash.
- Receipts – Besides being bulky, they will contain the last five numbers of your credit card. A thief might be able to “phish” to find the rest of these numbers.
- Passport – A thief could use this to travel under your name, open bank accounts, or even get a Social Security card. Not good.
- Business Cards – Consider a separate case and carry them in your pocket. Do you really want a thief to know where you work?
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright FMG Suite.
